Dan the Man

In the most sophisticated measurement of regular season QB value that has been invented, Marino comes out tops when computing for era/peer comparison, and comes out a hair behind Peyton, at 2nd place, for overall "converted yards" stats.

An explanation

All-Time Rankings

(Also, if you read the explanation post, you'll notice that rushing is also a factor, as well as sacks, fumbles, scores, yards/attempts, etc. And this is trying to measure QB value, not team and offensive value.)

Culpepper does better in these metrics than one might imagine, falling into the top 50 all-time, possibly close to top 40. He also apparently had one of the toughest all-time schedules amongst these all-time QBs ranked.

Here are adjusted rankings for weather, schedule strength, and post-season factors.

And here are some rankings on QBs with concentrated greatness at varying quantities of seasons or periods of time. Guys like Dan Fouts and Ken Anderson looking good here.

More (Play-Action) Passing Needed on First Down

link

Game theory tells us that when there are two strategy options, like run and pass, the expected payoffs for both options should be equal. You really don't need game theory to intuitively understand this. If one option yields a better payoff, then it should be chosen until the opponent responds with a strategy change of his own. Eventually, as the opponent responds, the payoffs for the two options equalize. The point at which the strategy mix equalizes payoffs is known as the minimax, or sometimes called the Nash equilibrium. The resulting strategy mix, or run-pass balance in this case, produces the best overall, long-run payoff.

When there are two strategy options and one of them yields a much higher payoff, it tells us two things. In this case, passing is more lucrative than running on 1st down, and this tells us: 1) offenses should be passing more often, and 2) for now, defenses should continue to be more biased toward stopping the run.

I was screaming about this during last year's SEC Championship game against Alabama. The Gators insisted on running on first down with Demps, mostly, for three quarters, until opening up the pass and getting most of their offensive success in the fourth quarter. Notice, this is NOT about running, even if it doesn't work, in order to pass later. It is saying that teams are running well over the amount needed to effectively "set-up" the defense.

You'll also notice, further into the piece, that more red-zone passing is needed.

Post-Tebow

Looking forward to a better offense, while still enjoying any championships this team brings.

link

Along with having a better overall quarterback (Yeah! I said it!), the Gators will also likely have:

• The single best player on Florida's current offense, Aaron Hernandez, will be back, if he scorns the NFL, presumably following up All-American status this year with a run at being a Top 10 draft pick in 2011.

• All three top running backs return: Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody. They are joined by top prep running Mack Brown, who might be better than all of them, and "the next Percy Harvin," Andre Debose, who lost his much-anticipated true freshman season this year to a hamstring injury.

• The offensive line may lose the Pouncey twins, but will be anchored by Xavier Nixon, who last week became the first true freshman to start at left tackle for Florida since the early nineties and could be the best freshman lineman in the nation this season. He will protect the right-handed Brantley's blind side.

There is a dumb joke to be made that Florida's offense can't possibly get less inspiring than it has been this season. But the fact is, even with diminished expectations, next season's offense should be better than this year's version -- even if Brantley himself can't plunge ahead for four yards on third-and-short like Tebow can.

Is Miles Lying? Or does he not even realize?

Dr. Saturday posted a local news video showing Miles gesturing for a spike (on the last play of their loss against Ole Miss last Saturday night), despite saying he didn't know who would have told Jefferson to spike it. At the very least, he didn't give his QB good coaching points shortly before the play. He seemed candid after the game, but still somehow out of sorts and vaguely elusive. The blog also links to a shot of Miles calling for a timeout after a turnover, so it's not the only time he would have momentarily lost his perspective on viable options in the moment.

Watch it.

1984

Pick 6: Week 8 (SCAR) Results

No Pick 6 this week due to the opponent. Will resume for FSU.

Week 8 (SCAR) Results:

Most Touches: Demps (9 carries, 2 receptions)
Most Yards: Cooper
Most Receptions: James
Most TDs: Cooper, Moody
Margin: 10

Defense:
Haden 2 (Tackles + Int)
Cunningham 1 (for sacks)
Hill 1 (for sacks)
J Trattou 1 (for int.)

Participant Points (Total):

Mark 8 (22)
Mary 3 (37)
Galapagos 3 (32)
Mike 3 (27)
Sean 1 (33)

Pick 6: Week 8 (SCAR)

Week 7 (Vandy) Results:

Most Touches: Moody
Most Yards: Hernandez
Most Receptions: Hernandez
Most TDs: Nelson, Demps
Margin: 24

Defense:
Stamper 1 (Int)
Doe 1 (11 Tackles)

Participant Points (Total):

Galapagos 6 (29)
Sean 5 (32)
Mary 4 (34)
Mike 4 (24)
Mark 3 (14)
Brad (13)

You can use the comments section of this post to enter your selections for the SCAR game.

Note on margins: All margin picks are assumed to be for Gator wins unless noted differently. If a participant picks a 1 point margin without specifying (as I am doing this week), and the Gators lose by 2, that participant will still receive 2 points for being within 3 of the score. A player that picks a 2 point margin in this scenario will only receive 1 point unless they specify an opponent victory in their pick. "0" or "tie" is/are also accepted.

Here are the categories/scoring:

Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):

8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point
1.5 Sacks= 1 Point
1 Interception= 1 Point
1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point

And here are the other categories:

Most Yards from Scrimmage
Most Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes)
Most Receptions
Most TDs (including returns/blocks)
Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6)
(No QBs)

Play On!

The Pat Dooley Show with Shane Matthews

Pick 6: Week 7 (Vandy)

Week 6 (Georgia) Results:

Most Touches: Moody
Most Yards: Cooper
Most Receptions: Cooper
Most TDs: Cooper
Point Margin: 24

Defensive Points:
Spikes: 3
Jones: 2
Black, Dunlap, Stamper: 1

Participant Points (Total):

Mike 7 (20)
Mary 3 (30)
Sean 3 (27)
Galapagos 3 (23)
Brad 3 (13)
Mark A. 3 (11)

You can use the comments section of this post to enter your selections for the Vandy game.

Here are the categories/scoring:

Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):

8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point
1.5 Sacks= 1 Point
1 Interception= 1 Point
1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point

And here are the other categories:

Most Yards from Scrimmage
Most Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes)
Most Receptions
Most TDs (including returns/blocks)
Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6)
(No QBs)

Play On!

Dooley's SEC Power Rankings

Here is Gainesville Sun Sportswriter Pat Dooley's latest SEC power rankings. Although I agree with the first three, I think he has some serious flaws after that.
For example, he has Tennessee behind Georgia. My rankings are below, please feel free to weigh in with your rankings or opinions.

Dooley's Rankings
1. Florida: Gators finally put it all together
2. Alabama: Still some hurdles to get to Atlanta
3. LSU: Tigers get their second big chance to make an impression
4. Auburn: Just when you thought the Tigers were dead
5. South Carolina: Steve Spurrier needs a win badly this week
6. Georgia: Just not a well-coached team
7. Tennessee: Vols are certainly making progress
8. Ole Miss: You try to figure the Rebels out. Go ahead
9. Mississippi State: Really nice win for Dan Mullen
10. Arkansas: A pretty good team to be at No. 10
11. Kentucky: Quarterback issues have doomed the 'Cats
12. Vanderbilt: Bobby Johnson's team won't be returning to a bowl

Mike's Rankings
1. Florida: No. 1 until I see Alabama play LSU.
2. Alabama: They looked better than Florida early on, but their offense is suspect.
3. LSU: Just the one loss-to Florida.
4. Tennessee: Though others have a better record, a close loss to 'Bama and wins over South Carolina and Georgia says they are the best of the next tier.
5. South Carolina: This was a tough one, because they just lost, but I still like them head to head over Auburn.
6. Auburn: A little schizophrenic, but I love Gus Malzahn's offense.
7. Mississippi: Sure, Jevan Snead is overrated and the Rebels have underachieved this year, but I still like them better than Georgia or Mississippi State.
8. Georgia: Joe Cox is not a very good quarterback and it affects how Mark Richt coaches the game.
9. Mississippi State: I don't know if Mullen will ever build the Bulldogs into a winner, but he has them playing better than in recent years.
10. Arkansas: Though Arkansas and Kentucky look to be identical-both are 1-4 in conference play and 4-4 overall and both have a win over Auburn, Arkansas played Florida closer and has a quality win over a team with a winning record-Texas A&M.
11. Kentucky: See above.
12. Vanderbilt: I thought for a second they had Georgia Tech's number. If they had won that game, then they would be at No. 10.

Spikes Suspended For First Half Of Vandy Game For Attempted Eye Gouging

Here and video here

You Be Offensive Coordinator/Quarterback

Here.

I like the fade, slant, or screen options. With the fade, Hernandez would have just needed to cut his route a step deeper and Tebow needed to hit it near the back corner-- an option that may have worked as is if he puts more on it (this would mean more/better execution on the original play I suppose).

Red-Zone Percentages and Pass Protection

Two excellent analysis on Gator offensive woes. The first, by Gator Country, takes a look over the last three years at the percentage of Tebow carries in the red-zone. What the author finds is that as TD percentages in the red-zone have gone down, there has simultaneously been a trend upward in the percentage of Tebow carries. Quite stark, really. If you take the top third of games that Tebow carried the most in the red-zone, you have most or all of our worst games in the last three years. Nice charts and graphs included.

The next piece is by Smart Football's Chris Brown. It focuses on pass protection issues. Keen, as always. Snapshots/diagrams and video included, as always.

Pick 6: Week 6 (Georgia)

Week 5 (MSU) Results:

Touches, TDs, Yards: Rainey (Doe also tied for lead in TDs with 1)
Receptions: Hernandez
Margin: 10

Defensive Points:
Dunlap 2 (3 Sacks)
AJ Jones 1 (Int)
Doe 2 (Int, TD)
Wright 1 (Int)
Stamper 1 (13 tackles)

Participant Points (Total):

Galapagos 5 (20)
Sean 4 (24)
Mary 3 (27)
Mike 4 (13)
Mark 3 (8)
Brad 1 (10)
John (4)

You can use the 'comments' section of this post to enter your selections for the Georgia game.

Here are the categories/scoring:

Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):

8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point
1.5 Sacks= 1 Point
1 Interception= 1 Point
1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point

And here are the other categories:

Most Yards from Scrimmage
Most Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes)
Most Receptions
Most TDs (including returns/blocks)
Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6)
(No QBs)

Play On!

The Pat Dooley Show With Norm Carlson

Here

Midnight Oil Was Burned On Red-Zone Analysis

On table: Fewer Tebow runs, more under center, more Moody feeds (210 ibs, great between tackles, no red-zone carries).

Pick 6: Week 5 (Mississippi State)

Week 4 Wrap-Up:

Touches: Demps
Yards and Receptions: Hernandez
TDs: Demps and Thompson
Margin: 3

Defensive Points:

Cunningham 1 (for 2 sacks)

Weekly Participant Points (Total):

Mary 5 (24)
Sean 5 (20)
Galapagos 4 (15)
Michael 5 (9)
Mark 4 (5)
Brad (9)
John (4)

You can use the 'comments' section of this post to enter your selections against Mississippi State.

Here are the categories/scoring:

Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):

8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point
1.5 Sacks= 1 Point
1 Interception= 1 Point
1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point

And here are the other categories:

Yards from Scrimmage
Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes)
Receptions
TDs (including returns/blocks)
Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6)
(No QBs)

Play On!

Differences with New Offensive Coordinating

First, from EDBS, on not coaching offense from the Booth:

Understatement. It’s always fun. The Orlando Sentinel gently suggests Florida misses Dan Mullen in the booth. Answer this: has there ever been an offensive coordinator who was better from the sidelines than one from the booth? Did we ever see Norm Chow looking up from his sixth brilliantly called touchdown of the day when he wasn’t glowering menacingly from behind the plate glass of the booth? When we think “brilliant offensive coordinator,” we inevitably see someone working silently from the aseptic, quiet environs of the booth, watching dots move around on the field like an indifferent, all-powerful deity. When we think “offensive coordinator on the sidelines,” we see Ed Zaunbrecher. Two fun facts! Steve Addazio calls the offense from the field, and is leading an attack tallying 18 points less than last year’s epic slaughtering crew.

A few commentators brought up Spurrier as a counter-example this.

Here's the Sentinel piece.

This part doesn't sound good:

Meyer says Addazio is doing a "heck of a job."

(Remind anyone of something?)

On the new setup vs. the old:

"The only person who's going to get heat is me," Meyer said. "We're just maneuvering through a difficult part of the schedule. We're trying to get some things worked out."

Not much has changed with the play-calling process.

Florida still calls plays by committee, with Meyer having the final say.

First-year offensive coordinator Steve Addazio, also the offensive line coach, still calls the running game but is more immersed in the overall scheme. Meyer says Addazio is doing a "heck of a job."

Wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales still organizes red-zone offense.

The Gators still draw plays Thursday and Friday they'd like to run early in the game.

...

Mullen was an extra voice of reason from the press box. Mullen had no problem telling Meyer no.

At last year's FSU game, the field at Doak Campbell Stadium was soaked and Meyer wanted to run Tebow all night. Mullen convinced him to stick with the passing attack because players looked unaffected by rain. The Gators won 45-15.

"That was eight years of being able to say that," Meyer said. "Not many people will say that to me during a [game]. Steve will. Billy Gonzales will."

And you thought Mullen was the overly careful-conservative of the bunch.

More hurry-up?:

After Arkansas flustered Florida with different blitz packages, Addazio said the Gators will rely more on hurry-up offense to avoid "standing there so long watching."

"We have to change tempo," Addazio said.

Still getting comfortable? Really?:

Three offensive assistants have been with Meyer for two years or less, which makes transition inevitable. Quarterback Tim Tebow is building chemistry with quarterbacks coach Scot Loeffler after three years with Mullen.

"It's going to take a little time to just get used to each other," Tebow said.

The Pat Dooley Show with Billy D.

Stop Punting!

Here and here:

Pulaski Academy does not punt.

I first heard about Pulaski from Peter Giovannini of Morrilton, Ark., a high school football official who wrote me to report in astonishment that he had just worked a conference championship game in which the winning team never punted, even going for a first down on fourth-and-6 from its own 5-yard line early in the game. "As a devotee of TMQ, I thought you might like to know at least one coach in the vast football universe has experienced the epiphany and refuses to punt the ball away," Giovannini wrote.

That team was Pulaski -- 9-1-1 after having just won its opening-round game in the Arkansas 5A playoffs. Coach Kevin Kelley reports that he stopped punting in 2005 -- after reading an academic study on the statistical consequences of going for the first down versus handing possession to the other team, plus reading Tuesday Morning Quarterback's relentless examples of when punting backfires but going for the first down works. In 2005, Pulaski reached the state quarterfinals by rarely punting. In 2006, Pulaski reached the state championship game, losing by one point -- and in the state championship game, Pulaski never punted, converting nine of 10 fourth-down attempts. Since the start of the 2006 season, Pulaski has had no punting unit and never practices punts. This year, Pulaski has punted just twice, both times when leading by a large margin and trying to hold down the final score. In its playoff victory Friday night, Pulaski did not punt, converting three of four fourth-down tries.

"They give you four downs, not three," Kelley told TMQ. "You should take advantage. Suppose we had punted from our own 5. The odds are the opposition will take over at about the 35, and from there the stats say they have an 80 percent chance of scoring. So even if you only have a 50 percent chance of converting the first down, isn't that better than giving the other side an 80 percent chance of scoring?" For fourth-and-short attempts, the odds of converting are a lot better than 50 percent.

As TMQ endlessly notes, NFL teams convert about 75 percent of fourth-and-1 tries. Yet highly paid professional coaches endlessly send in the punt unit on fourth-and-1, handing a scoring opportunity to the opposition. In the 2006 edition of my annual don't-punt column, I summarized the odds this way: "Nearly three-quarters of fourth-and-1 attempts succeed, while around one-third of possessions result in scores. Think about those fractions. Go for it four times on fourth-and-1: Odds are you will keep the ball three times, and three kept possessions each with a one-third chance of a score results in your team scoring once more than it otherwise would have. Punt the ball on all four fourth-and-1s, and you've given the opponents three additional possessions. (It would have gotten one possession anyway when you missed one of your fourth-and-1s.) Those three extra possessions, divided by the one-third chance to score, give the opponent an extra score."

Kelley says that when he began to shun the punt, people thought he was crazy: "It's like brainwashing, people believe you are required to punt." Players and the home crowd needed to get acclimated to it. "When we first started going on every fourth down," he says, "our home crowd would boo and the players would be distressed. You need to become accustomed to the philosophy and buy into the idea. Now our crowd and our players expect us to go for it, and get excited when no punting team comes onto the field. When my 10-year-old son sees NFL teams punting on short yardage on television, he gets upset because he's grown up with the idea that punting is usually bad."

Preparing the players for the no-punting future of football is a practical concern. If a coach unexpectedly kept his offense in on fourth down in his own territory, and failed to convert, the crowd would boo and the defensive players become demoralized. If the defensive players understood that a no-punting philosophy occasionally would hand great field position to the other side but overall would keep the other side off the field, they would buy into the idea. Imagine, in turn, the demoralizing effect on the opposition if its defense stops its opponent after three downs, only to realize that no punt will follow. For the 2007 edition of my anti-punting column, the stats service AccuScore did thousands of computer simulations based on 2006 NFL games and found that, on average, rarely punting added one point per game to the score of the teams that didn't punt, while not adding any points to their opponents' final scores. Computer simulations showed that rarely punting amounted to roughly one additional victory per season at the NFL level. At the college and high school levels, the bonus might be even higher.

Why do coaches punt on fourth-and-short -- and worse, when trailing or in opposition territory? "Most punting is so the coach can avoid criticism," says Kelley, who has coached Pulaski for five years and got his start in high school coaching in football-crazed Texas. "If you go for it and fail, the first question in the postgame press conference will be, 'Aren't you to blame for losing the game because you didn't punt?' If the coach orders a punt, the media will blame the defense." TMQ has always speculated that the desire to shift blame explains why big-college and NFL coaches send in the punting team. But take note, these days, the media and the postgame news conference are factors even at the high school level.

Pulaski Academy is providing real-world evidence of the future of football. The most important innovation in years is being field-tested by the Pulaski Bruins, and the test is going quite well. But don't just take Kelley's word for it. The decisive snap of Illinois' upset of No. 1 Ohio State on Saturday came when the Illini, leading 28-21 with six minutes remaining, went for it on fourth-and-1 in their own territory. Sports radio generally called this a huge gamble. Actually, it was playing the percentages; Illinois converted and held the ball for the remainder of the game. Had Illinois boomed a punt, the Buckeyes would have been in business. On Sunday, while trailing at Washington, Philadelphia went for it on fourth-and-1 in its own territory in the second half -- Fox television announcer Daryl Johnston called this "a huge gamble!" It was playing the percentages; the Eagles converted, and they scored a touchdown on the possession, igniting a comeback. Trailing 10-2, Buffalo went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Dolphins' 24 in the fourth quarter: a conversion, followed by a touchdown on the possession, keyed the Bills' comeback. Leading defending champion Indianapolis 16-0, San Diego went for it on fourth-and-2 at the Indianapolis 37, converted and scored a touchdown on the possession, going on to win by two points. Three times Jacksonville went for it on fourth-and-short in Tennessee territory, all three times converting and going on to score touchdowns; the Titans went for it on fourth-and-short twice in return, once failing and once scoring a touchdown. As noted by reader Rene Derken of Leuth, the Netherlands, Green Bay went for it twice on fourth-and-short in Minnesota territory, both times scoring on the possession -- but Minnesota punted from the Green Bay 42. Carolina went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Atlanta 20, and the play reached the Falcons' 2 before the Panthers' runner fumbled. Yes, New Orleans failed on a fourth-and-1 attempt in its own territory and went on to lose, and San Francisco failed on a fourth-and-1 on the Seattle 2-yard line when trailing big. But of the high-profile fourth-down tries in the NFL and in the Illinois-Ohio State game this past weekend, 10 were a total success, one a qualified success and three a failure. Not too shabby, compared with passively punting the ball.

And consider the punts that boomed when a play should have been run. Trailing 10-0, San Francisco (2-6) punted on fourth-and-1 from their 48-yard line and several minutes later was trailing 17-0. When the game was still tied, the Giants punted on fourth-and-2 from the Dallas 45. Not coincidentally, by game's end they were desperate for points.

Klosterman on Innovation in, and Love For, Football

Passing, Trust, Etc.

From here:

Last year, Florida had three players with 30 or more catches. In 2007, four Gators had 30 or more receptions.

This season, Hernandez and Cooper have combined for 51 catches for 693 yards and five touchdowns. Starters Brandon James, David Nelson and Deonte Thompson have accumulated 20 catches for 299 yards and four touchdowns — three from Thompson.

Outside of Hernandez (28 catches) and Cooper (23), no other receiver has double-digit catches, and only Thompson has 100 yards (127).

Meyer insists it's not a talent issue and that a few factors have played into the pedestrian numbers by Gator receivers.

For one, Meyer said defenses are causing protection issues for his quarterback. Defenses are giving unexpected looks to Tebow and his line. Players are getting open, but Tebow isn't getting enough time.

Poor protection is also causing Tebow to hold onto the ball a bit longer, causing him to try and make more plays with his feet. Meyer said it can sometimes be an issue to have Tebow hold onto the ball, but he can't blame his quarterback for trying to play smart.

"He’s not a guy that’s going to go take that shot if it’s not there," Meyer said.

Meyer said that while a heavy amount of the passing game has been directed to Hernandez and Cooper, not all those plays have been specifically called for them. They're getting open more because opposing defenses are dictating that.

Tebow took some of the blame for the receivers' numbers, saying his running mentality has caused him to miss open guys. He added that his trust in them isn't a problem.

"In some of those situations it’s me tyring to make a play instead of throwing it away," he said. "I don’t think it’s not having confidence in some of the players," he said. "I have complete confidence in all those guys who are out there playing."

I would add that it's also about trusting the passing pocket. Tebow seemed to often bail it too soon even when he maybe had time to check another receiver.

Tebow And Mullen

Here.
Excerpt:

Ten months ago, Megan Mullen was packing up her husband's office at the UF Football Complex when a confused Tim Tebow entered.

Former Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen and his wife were starting to move on.

Tebow wasn't ready for that.

The Florida quarterback wondered why Mullen had to leave.

He asked Megan why Mullen took the first head-coaching job available.

He even asked if Mullen, now Mississippi State's head coach, really thought he would defeat the Florida Gators when the two collided Saturday at 7:30 p.m. in Starkville.

"It was the first time I ever saw his youthfulness," Megan said. "He's so mature and beyond his years in everything, but on that day he was an emotional young man."