Passing on First Downs is More Lucrative Overall

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POTUS for Gators, and Wild-Haden too successful!

Yeah, because we can't have too good of an offense, that would be problematic! No way Haden could take a few defensive plays off contra the lowly Tide passing game.

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Galen Hall Thanks Dooley for 1984 Recognition

Dooley reads Hall's thanks at end of this week's Pat Dooley Show.

Video here, with guest Doug Johnson.

original article

Some (Sarcastic) Thanks for the BCS

here

• "If BCS not completely broken, don't fix it." We like our championship systems in that sweet spot between roughly 83 and 96.4 percent broken, anyway.

• "BCS is a friend to the Mountain West." And real friends always hang together to summarily dismiss one another's bids for equality and denounce each other to Congress. It's not like those wannabes would know what to do with all that money, anyway. It's for their own good.

• "Would a college football playoff be fair?" If you were intelligent enough to employ the "Fairness Index" instead of an irrelevant, abstract measure like "actual results of head-to-head competition," you would see clearly that no, no it would not be.

Pick 6: Week 9 (FSU)

Here are Week 8 (SCAR) results.

Use the comments section below to post your FSU picks.

Play On!

Dominant Pro Running Backs

Methodology
Dominant Seasons
Career

Also, receivers

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Dan the Man

In the most sophisticated measurement of regular season QB value that has been invented, Marino comes out tops when computing for era/peer comparison, and comes out a hair behind Peyton, at 2nd place, for overall "converted yards" stats.

An explanation

All-Time Rankings

(Also, if you read the explanation post, you'll notice that rushing is also a factor, as well as sacks, fumbles, scores, yards/attempts, etc. And this is trying to measure QB value, not team and offensive value.)

Culpepper does better in these metrics than one might imagine, falling into the top 50 all-time, possibly close to top 40. He also apparently had one of the toughest all-time schedules amongst these all-time QBs ranked.

Here are adjusted rankings for weather, schedule strength, and post-season factors.

And here are some rankings on QBs with concentrated greatness at varying quantities of seasons or periods of time. Guys like Dan Fouts and Ken Anderson looking good here.

More (Play-Action) Passing Needed on First Down

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Game theory tells us that when there are two strategy options, like run and pass, the expected payoffs for both options should be equal. You really don't need game theory to intuitively understand this. If one option yields a better payoff, then it should be chosen until the opponent responds with a strategy change of his own. Eventually, as the opponent responds, the payoffs for the two options equalize. The point at which the strategy mix equalizes payoffs is known as the minimax, or sometimes called the Nash equilibrium. The resulting strategy mix, or run-pass balance in this case, produces the best overall, long-run payoff.

When there are two strategy options and one of them yields a much higher payoff, it tells us two things. In this case, passing is more lucrative than running on 1st down, and this tells us: 1) offenses should be passing more often, and 2) for now, defenses should continue to be more biased toward stopping the run.

I was screaming about this during last year's SEC Championship game against Alabama. The Gators insisted on running on first down with Demps, mostly, for three quarters, until opening up the pass and getting most of their offensive success in the fourth quarter. Notice, this is NOT about running, even if it doesn't work, in order to pass later. It is saying that teams are running well over the amount needed to effectively "set-up" the defense.

You'll also notice, further into the piece, that more red-zone passing is needed.

Post-Tebow

Looking forward to a better offense, while still enjoying any championships this team brings.

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Along with having a better overall quarterback (Yeah! I said it!), the Gators will also likely have:

• The single best player on Florida's current offense, Aaron Hernandez, will be back, if he scorns the NFL, presumably following up All-American status this year with a run at being a Top 10 draft pick in 2011.

• All three top running backs return: Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and Emmanuel Moody. They are joined by top prep running Mack Brown, who might be better than all of them, and "the next Percy Harvin," Andre Debose, who lost his much-anticipated true freshman season this year to a hamstring injury.

• The offensive line may lose the Pouncey twins, but will be anchored by Xavier Nixon, who last week became the first true freshman to start at left tackle for Florida since the early nineties and could be the best freshman lineman in the nation this season. He will protect the right-handed Brantley's blind side.

There is a dumb joke to be made that Florida's offense can't possibly get less inspiring than it has been this season. But the fact is, even with diminished expectations, next season's offense should be better than this year's version -- even if Brantley himself can't plunge ahead for four yards on third-and-short like Tebow can.

Is Miles Lying? Or does he not even realize?

Dr. Saturday posted a local news video showing Miles gesturing for a spike (on the last play of their loss against Ole Miss last Saturday night), despite saying he didn't know who would have told Jefferson to spike it. At the very least, he didn't give his QB good coaching points shortly before the play. He seemed candid after the game, but still somehow out of sorts and vaguely elusive. The blog also links to a shot of Miles calling for a timeout after a turnover, so it's not the only time he would have momentarily lost his perspective on viable options in the moment.

Watch it.

1984

Pick 6: Week 8 (SCAR) Results

No Pick 6 this week due to the opponent. Will resume for FSU.

Week 8 (SCAR) Results:

Most Touches: Demps (9 carries, 2 receptions)
Most Yards: Cooper
Most Receptions: James
Most TDs: Cooper, Moody
Margin: 10

Defense:
Haden 2 (Tackles + Int)
Cunningham 1 (for sacks)
Hill 1 (for sacks)
J Trattou 1 (for int.)

Participant Points (Total):

Mark 8 (22)
Mary 3 (37)
Galapagos 3 (32)
Mike 3 (27)
Sean 1 (33)

Pick 6: Week 8 (SCAR)

Week 7 (Vandy) Results:

Most Touches: Moody
Most Yards: Hernandez
Most Receptions: Hernandez
Most TDs: Nelson, Demps
Margin: 24

Defense:
Stamper 1 (Int)
Doe 1 (11 Tackles)

Participant Points (Total):

Galapagos 6 (29)
Sean 5 (32)
Mary 4 (34)
Mike 4 (24)
Mark 3 (14)
Brad (13)

You can use the comments section of this post to enter your selections for the SCAR game.

Note on margins: All margin picks are assumed to be for Gator wins unless noted differently. If a participant picks a 1 point margin without specifying (as I am doing this week), and the Gators lose by 2, that participant will still receive 2 points for being within 3 of the score. A player that picks a 2 point margin in this scenario will only receive 1 point unless they specify an opponent victory in their pick. "0" or "tie" is/are also accepted.

Here are the categories/scoring:

Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):

8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point
1.5 Sacks= 1 Point
1 Interception= 1 Point
1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point

And here are the other categories:

Most Yards from Scrimmage
Most Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes)
Most Receptions
Most TDs (including returns/blocks)
Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6)
(No QBs)

Play On!

The Pat Dooley Show with Shane Matthews

Pick 6: Week 7 (Vandy)

Week 6 (Georgia) Results:

Most Touches: Moody
Most Yards: Cooper
Most Receptions: Cooper
Most TDs: Cooper
Point Margin: 24

Defensive Points:
Spikes: 3
Jones: 2
Black, Dunlap, Stamper: 1

Participant Points (Total):

Mike 7 (20)
Mary 3 (30)
Sean 3 (27)
Galapagos 3 (23)
Brad 3 (13)
Mark A. 3 (11)

You can use the comments section of this post to enter your selections for the Vandy game.

Here are the categories/scoring:

Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):

8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point
1.5 Sacks= 1 Point
1 Interception= 1 Point
1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point

And here are the other categories:

Most Yards from Scrimmage
Most Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes)
Most Receptions
Most TDs (including returns/blocks)
Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6)
(No QBs)

Play On!

Dooley's SEC Power Rankings

Here is Gainesville Sun Sportswriter Pat Dooley's latest SEC power rankings. Although I agree with the first three, I think he has some serious flaws after that.
For example, he has Tennessee behind Georgia. My rankings are below, please feel free to weigh in with your rankings or opinions.

Dooley's Rankings
1. Florida: Gators finally put it all together
2. Alabama: Still some hurdles to get to Atlanta
3. LSU: Tigers get their second big chance to make an impression
4. Auburn: Just when you thought the Tigers were dead
5. South Carolina: Steve Spurrier needs a win badly this week
6. Georgia: Just not a well-coached team
7. Tennessee: Vols are certainly making progress
8. Ole Miss: You try to figure the Rebels out. Go ahead
9. Mississippi State: Really nice win for Dan Mullen
10. Arkansas: A pretty good team to be at No. 10
11. Kentucky: Quarterback issues have doomed the 'Cats
12. Vanderbilt: Bobby Johnson's team won't be returning to a bowl

Mike's Rankings
1. Florida: No. 1 until I see Alabama play LSU.
2. Alabama: They looked better than Florida early on, but their offense is suspect.
3. LSU: Just the one loss-to Florida.
4. Tennessee: Though others have a better record, a close loss to 'Bama and wins over South Carolina and Georgia says they are the best of the next tier.
5. South Carolina: This was a tough one, because they just lost, but I still like them head to head over Auburn.
6. Auburn: A little schizophrenic, but I love Gus Malzahn's offense.
7. Mississippi: Sure, Jevan Snead is overrated and the Rebels have underachieved this year, but I still like them better than Georgia or Mississippi State.
8. Georgia: Joe Cox is not a very good quarterback and it affects how Mark Richt coaches the game.
9. Mississippi State: I don't know if Mullen will ever build the Bulldogs into a winner, but he has them playing better than in recent years.
10. Arkansas: Though Arkansas and Kentucky look to be identical-both are 1-4 in conference play and 4-4 overall and both have a win over Auburn, Arkansas played Florida closer and has a quality win over a team with a winning record-Texas A&M.
11. Kentucky: See above.
12. Vanderbilt: I thought for a second they had Georgia Tech's number. If they had won that game, then they would be at No. 10.

Spikes Suspended For First Half Of Vandy Game For Attempted Eye Gouging

Here and video here

You Be Offensive Coordinator/Quarterback

Here.

I like the fade, slant, or screen options. With the fade, Hernandez would have just needed to cut his route a step deeper and Tebow needed to hit it near the back corner-- an option that may have worked as is if he puts more on it (this would mean more/better execution on the original play I suppose).

Red-Zone Percentages and Pass Protection

Two excellent analysis on Gator offensive woes. The first, by Gator Country, takes a look over the last three years at the percentage of Tebow carries in the red-zone. What the author finds is that as TD percentages in the red-zone have gone down, there has simultaneously been a trend upward in the percentage of Tebow carries. Quite stark, really. If you take the top third of games that Tebow carried the most in the red-zone, you have most or all of our worst games in the last three years. Nice charts and graphs included.

The next piece is by Smart Football's Chris Brown. It focuses on pass protection issues. Keen, as always. Snapshots/diagrams and video included, as always.

Pick 6: Week 6 (Georgia)

Week 5 (MSU) Results:

Touches, TDs, Yards: Rainey (Doe also tied for lead in TDs with 1)
Receptions: Hernandez
Margin: 10

Defensive Points:
Dunlap 2 (3 Sacks)
AJ Jones 1 (Int)
Doe 2 (Int, TD)
Wright 1 (Int)
Stamper 1 (13 tackles)

Participant Points (Total):

Galapagos 5 (20)
Sean 4 (24)
Mary 3 (27)
Mike 4 (13)
Mark 3 (8)
Brad 1 (10)
John (4)

You can use the 'comments' section of this post to enter your selections for the Georgia game.

Here are the categories/scoring:

Defensive scoring (you make 2 defensive picks like you do for the other categories):

8 Tackles (solo and assisted)= 1 Point
1.5 Sacks= 1 Point
1 Interception= 1 Point
1 Score (TD or safety)= 1 Point

And here are the other categories:

Most Yards from Scrimmage
Most Touches from Scrimmage (runs + receptions + passes)
Most Receptions
Most TDs (including returns/blocks)
Point Margin (list one guess--earn 2 points for being within 3, 1 point for being within 6)
(No QBs)

Play On!

The Pat Dooley Show With Norm Carlson

Here

Midnight Oil Was Burned On Red-Zone Analysis

On table: Fewer Tebow runs, more under center, more Moody feeds (210 ibs, great between tackles, no red-zone carries).